Democrats Lay Out What's at Stake in State-Level Races in November
The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) released a memo this week outlining plans to combat voter down-ballot rolloff ⎻ the phenomena of casting a vote for president and congress but ignoring lesser known state-level candidates ⎻ in what will likely be the most important election in history for control of state houses across the country in a post-Roe United States.
Historical and recent internal targeting data currently show that even with wins at the top of the ticket, Democratic legislative majorities could be at risk in Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania, as could opportunities to build power in Wisconsin, Arizona, and New Hampshire, where Dems are only a few seats away from taking control from out of control MAGA majorities.
Over the past decade, Republicans have avoided the negative effects of rolloff, with just 37% of their races impacted compared to the 80% of competitive races featuring Democrats down-ballot. The data clearly shows Democratic voters are more likely to only vote top of ticket while underperforming on candidates for state legislature.
Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee
From the DLCC memo:
According to the DLCC, overcoming the effects of down-ballot roll-off by even a single percentage point could significantly increase the chances of retaining and building new Democratic majorities.
"2024 is the most consequential election of our lifetimes, and to ensure Democrats win up and down the ballot, we must overcome the historical obstacles candidates face at this ballot level," DLCC President Heather Williams said in a statement. "We know ballot rolloff uniquely impacts Democrats running down-ballot, which is why raising resources in these final weeks is essential so candidates can reach and communicate with voters."
With or without Donald Trump in the White House, MAGA Republicans are preparing to roll back reproductive freedoms and LGBTQ Rights in state houses all over the country. DLCC is building a campaign to match the deep pocketed rapid response donor machine in the Republican party that has the ability to pump millions into state races overnight in response to the rise of strong down-ballot Democratic candidates.
"The rights of tens of millions of Americans rest in our state legislatures and as Donald Trump desperately tries to win back the White House, we know his MAGA allies are on the march in the states," Williams continued. "Investing in state legislatures to build Democratic power is the strongest way to defend our future. We still have a critical window right now to influence the trajectory of this election down-ballot, but it is rapidly closing."
